Anthony Painter

The Guardian has an interesting comment page today with Julian Glover and Jackie Ashley seemingly in direct contradiction of one another. Since the first TV debate in the election campaign, The Guardian has had the same divided feel as the wider left in the country at large. This is no bad thing- if we live in pluralistic times then let’s have a properly pluralistic discussion. So Martin Kettle/ Julian Glover seem to represent a liberal, pluralistic, centrism while Jackie Ashley and Polly Toynbee are the paper’s social democratic beating heart with Jonathan Freedland representing non-aligned reasonableness.

And so this morning you get Jackie Ashley in a foreboding warning to the Coalition that the worst is yet to come once the public realises that no-one will escape the swinging scythe of cuts and tax increases. She advises the Coalition to reconsider:

“The government would be better off asking hard questions about its strategy. Is this much pain this soon quite so clever? What if we are tipped into a double-dip recession? Even if it is able to blame Labour for the first “V”, the coalition will be blamed for the second. Is there a Plan B, any exit strategy or reverse gear if things radically worsen? Those are the questions ministers need to answer. We need less lip-smacking about cuts and more sober caution.”

She encourages Labour in its opposition, though warns of the need for constructive sobriety:

“This winter, we will have a new Labour leader, and a change in the national mood. I hope we get a truly serious critique of the government’s planned cuts – without spite or childish name-calling, but one that asks whether it is not going too fast, too far, and explains the alternatives.”

Glover on the other hand takes a more ‘no turning back’ approach. For him, the Coalition strategy is absolutely right- share the pain as pain there must be. And he warns the left against knee-jerk oppositionalism:

“The left is beginning to smell like sour yoghurt, a long moan against the world as it is and how the last government left it. The problem is not that Labour is heading towards interesting ideological isolation. The varied shades from pale pink to light magenta in which its serious candidates are painting themselves are not socialism. The problem is that the party is being bundled up in all sorts of shallow resentments and is assuming that the public will share this negativity.”

He also makes the extremely astute observation:

“UK politics is often characterised as a contest for the centre ground, but that misdescribes the nature of the quest. Centrism implies banality, but I don’t think voters want their governments to be mundane. There is a willingness to endorse radical action if it is explained and if it looks practicable.”

Labour would do well to heed this insight in its forthcoming renewal.

So who is right: Jackie Ashley or Julian Glover? In a sense they both are. Ashley is right that Labour must provide sound, grounded opposition to the Coalition and its economic and fiscal approach. Simply saying that it will go as far as the last Government just sounds irrelevant- no matter how loudly it is shouted. There is a left alternative if, in the words of Glover, it is explained and practicable. But simply sticking to its guns on the deficit means that Labour will not be listened to when it’s doing the explaining! This is not the same thing as Labour not opposing what is wrong, damaging and avoidable. It it does not then who will?

Glover’s analysis ultimately provides Labour with the stronger strategic insights. While the temptation is to simply pour scorn and hot oil on the Coalition and all its works, it will keep Labour locked in the past in the minds of voters. There are some tactical attractions to this. But it is ultimately a strategic dead end. There is a simply truism of British politics: parties win elections when they are seen as the future rather than the past. And Labour currently sounds very much like the past.

Labour, therefore, needs to follow Jackie Ashley on the need for constructive and well thought out opposition yet realise that the Glover strategy is the one that is of the most long-term use. When Labour is once again seen as the future, then it will be a viable alternative for Government once again. It has not even begun that journey as yet.