This morning I started off my day in the constituency of Meriden with a Conservative majority of 7767. That was the Conservative bookend. The journey ended up in Hackney South and Shoreditch- Labour majority of 9911: the Labour bookend.
Between, my journey took me- more or less- through the following seats (I stopped off to campaign in Rugby, notional small Labour majority- it’s a new seat) and they are all critical to the outcome of the election:
- Warwickshire North. Labour. Conservative target 147 (one they have to win with a swing of 7.7% if the Lib Dems and others manage to hold on to their seats against the Conservatives if they are to win an overall majority.)
- Nuneaton. Labour. Conservative target 85- swing required 4.85%. Conservative must win.
- Rugby. A new seat and again one the Conservatives must absolutely win.
- Warwick and Leamington. If the Tories do take their targeted seats from the Liberal Democrats, this is the seat that could give them a majority. Swing required 6.4%.
- Northampton North and South. North requires a swing to the Tories of 4.5% and South requires 1.85%. Conservative must wins.
- Milton Keynes North is Conservative target 36. And Milton Keynes South is target 7. Must wins.
- Luton North. This is Conservative target 158. If the Conservatives win this they are probably well into overall majority territory.
- Luton South. If the Liberal Democrats hold onto their seats, the Tories will have to win this at a hefty swing of 7.4%.
- Watford. This is Conservative target 38. Again, must win.
Somewhere near Watford I left the M1. But it struck me that I’d just traveled through swing Britain. If all the seats- Labour currently- turn blue then we are looking at a Conservative majority. We’ll see as the results come in……
I’m at LBC tonight. Tweet me or something to keep me awake.
Fri, May 7, 2010
Uncategorized