Anthony Painter

An interesting blog was tweeted yesterday by @leloveluck regarding the myth of the ‘independent’ voter in US politics. It appeared on the Monkey Cage blog. Apparently, other than about 10% true independents, the vast majority are either Republican or Democratic leaners. What it also shows is that of the 16% drop in President Obama’s approval rating over the last few months, the majority of that is from people who are exceedingly unlikely to vote for him anyway.

One of the quirks of the US political system is that there are very few presidential voting polls this far out as it is impossible to guess who the president will be standing against come 2012. So the fall in his approval rating and its impact on his potential support is difficult to gauge. This data suggests that he should be rather less worried- and I’m sure he won’t be that worried anyhow- about his approval rating than might first appear to be the case.

There is another interesting chart in the blog which rather puts another nail in the coffin of the myth that the United States is a ‘conservative’ country:

What it clearly shows is that for the whole of this year almost, 53% of the US electorate is either Democrat or leaning Democrat with only 40% similarly so for the Republicans.

What we don’t know, however, is the values and preferences of those ‘leaners.’ In other words, what do Democrats need to do to keep hold of them? It would be really interesting who they were also. Anyway, an interesting take nonetheless and it shows how wrong-headed the media narrative can be.

I’m going to review David Plouffe’s The Audacity to Win for you in the next couple of days. I just need a couple of hours to finish it and Aston Villa v Liverpool will divert me tonight. All I can say at this stage is that it is truly excellent and a must read for anyone engaged in active politics. A simple rule to take from it: play the rules of the actual game, not the game that the media is playing (and this analysis of independents shows the danger of not challenging the media narrative.) Work out your strategy and execute it. Simple really. More soon…..